Abstract

The paper substantiates the non-linear nature of the relationship between the depth of an agricultural enterprise’s digital transformation and the performance of its management. Three levels of this non-linearity are identified: the trajectory level (U-shaped dynamics of returns on digital investment), the security level (growing dependence on energy and communication infrastructure as digitalisation deepens) and the population level (stratification of enterprises in the industry by adaptation strategy). It is established that the wartime shock deepens and prolongs the phase of negative returns but, once this phase is overcome, raises the value of the enterprise’s analytical capabilities. Three phases of the digital transformation trajectory (cost accumulation, turning point and returns) are proposed, and priority management tasks are defined for each of them. It is concluded that digital transformation should be managed at the strategic rather than the project level, and information and analytical support should show where on the transformation trajectory the enterprise currently stands.